Colorado Ballot 2026 — What decides it

The big picture

Six things that shape every contest below.

Colorado is not a swing state anymore

Republicans haven't won a statewide race since 2016, and only one governor's race in 50 years. The statewide contests are mostly about margin, not winner. Your leverage there is small; your leverage on measures and CD8 is large.

Unaffiliated voters are the majority

Unaffiliated registration passed 50% of active voters this year. They swung the June primaries and they decide the general. Neither party can win on base alone.

The primaries already rewrote the map

Attorney General Weiser beat Sen. Bennet for governor by double digits. A 28-year-old democratic socialist unseated 15-term Rep. DeGette. Hickenlooper had a closer-than-expected primary from his left. Energy is on the Democratic left; the GOP nominated first-timers in the top two races.

One House seat is a national tossup

CD8 (Thornton, Brighton, Greeley) was decided by a couple thousand votes in 2022 and 2024. It's one of roughly 18 true tossups nationally. If you live there, this is the single most consequential vote on your ballot.

The measures are where policy actually moves

With Democrats locked in at the Capitol, conservative groups are legislating by initiative: Advance Colorado sponsors six of the 14, Protect Kids Colorado three. Progressive groups answered with a graduated income tax. Two of the measures directly cancel each other.

Know the thresholds

Constitutional amendments need 55% to pass. Propositions need a simple majority. Exception: Amendment 87 only repeals constitutional language, so it needs a simple majority — which matters for the 87-vs-136 fight.

Federal

One Senate seat and all eight House seats. Control of both chambers nationally is on the line in this midterm, which is why outside money is concentrating on CD8, CD3 and CD5.

U.S. Senate Safe D

D
John HickenlooperIncumbent (elected 2020); former governor and Denver mayor. Says this is his last Senate campaign.
R
Mark BaisleyState senator (Douglas/Teller); engineering-software executive. Switched from the governor's race in January.

Also on the ballot: Chris Baum (Approval Voting), Bob Chew (Forward), Blake Huber (Libertarian), Adam Withrow (Unity).

What decides it

Not the winner — Hickenlooper is a heavy favorite (a late-May poll had him up 41–34 before the primary; forecasters put him near 90%). The real question is margin and enthusiasm. Progressive state Sen. Julie Gonzales held him under 56% in the June primary despite being outspent more than 10-to-1. Whether that left-flank energy turns out for him in November, or stays home, shows up in every down-ballot race.

Hickenlooper's pitch: bipartisan dealmaking and the "affordability emergency." Baisley's: a conservative alternative in a state that hasn't elected one statewide in a decade, with limited funding.

U.S. House — all eight districts

Four are held by each party today. Only one is a true tossup; two more are worth watching. The competitive ones are open by default — expand the rest as needed.

CD8 — Thornton, Brighton, Greeley, north I-25 corridor Tossup

R
Gabe EvansIncumbent; flipped the seat in 2024 with 49.0%. Former state rep, Army veteran, ex-police officer. Endorsed by Trump and Speaker Johnson.
D
Manny RutinelState representative (Commerce City), attorney and economist. Won a crowded primary over Shannon Bird; backed by Latino Victory, CHC BOLD PAC, Ken Salazar, Cory Booker.
L
Dave WoodLibertarian, retired businessman.

2024: Evans 49.0%, ~2,500-vote margin2022: Caraveo (D) by ~1,600Cash (June): Evans $3.4M on hand; Rutinel raised $4.1MRatings: Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato, Economist — Tossup

What decides it

Latino turnout in Adams and Weld counties, and whether the midterm environment breaks against the party in the White House the way it usually does. The district is roughly a third Hispanic; both campaigns are built around it. Evans has voted with the House GOP majority on immigration enforcement and the 2025 budget bill — Rutinel is running on healthcare and cost of living and calling those votes the record. Evans is running on public safety and his law-enforcement background.

Expect the heaviest outside spending in Colorado history for a House seat. Evans is widely described as the most endangered Republican incumbent in the country; Colorado Pols has it 55–45 Rutinel. That's a coin flip with a thumb on it, not a lock.

CD3 — Western Slope, Pueblo, Grand Junction Likely R

R
Jeff HurdIncumbent; won the open seat in 2024 with 50.8%. Grand Junction attorney. Lost Trump's endorsement in February over a tariffs vote, regained it in March after his primary challenger dropped out.
D
Dwayne RomeroFormer Aspen city councilman, former state cabinet secretary, businessman. Endorsed by Hickenlooper, Jason Crow and two-time nominee Adam Frisch.
L
Cory RobertsonLibertarian.
I
Clifton BrownIndependent, carpenter.

2024: Hurd 50.8 – Frisch 45.8Ratings: Cook Safe R; Inside Elections & Sabato Likely R; Economist Lean RCash (June): Hurd $1.6M on hand

What decides it

Hurd's brand is "not a Boebert" — a rules-following conservative willing to buck the White House. That cost him with the MAGA base in the spring and helps him with the unaffiliated majority in the fall. Romero needs Pueblo turnout plus the resort-county Democrats to break the 18-year GOP hold; Frisch came within 546 votes in 2022 and 5 points in 2024 with far more money than Romero has. Water, wolves and public-lands management dominate the district conversation more than national issues.

CD5 — Colorado Springs, El Paso County Likely R

R
Jeff CrankIncumbent; won the open seat in 2024 with 54.7%. Longtime conservative radio host and advocacy operative. Trump-endorsed.
D
Jessica KillinAttorney, Army veteran, former chief of staff to Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff. On the DCCC "Red to Blue" list; endorsed by every Colorado congressional Democrat and both senators.
ACP
Christopher MitchellAmerican Constitution Party.
L
Mark Elworth Jr.Libertarian.

2024: Crank 54.7%Ratings: Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato, Economist — Likely R; Race to the WH — Tilt RCash (June): Crank $1.3M; Killin $1.4M on hand

What decides it

Whether Colorado Springs keeps drifting. The city elected an independent mayor in 2023 and the suburbs have moved left every cycle; Killin's only public poll (her own, Nov 2025) had it 43–40. Her military background is built for this district's voters. Crank still starts with a double-digit structural edge and Trump's endorsement in a county he carried comfortably. A Democratic wave year makes this interesting; a normal year doesn't.

CD1 — Denver Safe D

D
Melat KirosAttorney, doctoral student, 28, democratic socialist. Defeated 15-term Rep. Diana DeGette in the June primary with backing from Bernie Sanders, Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party.
R
Christy PetersonOffice manager.
L
Chad HumphreyLibertarian, retired Marine officer.
UP
Critter MiltonUnity Party.
I
Shimon BlauIndependent, physician.

2024: DeGette 76.5%Ratings: Safe/Solid D across the board

What decides it

Already decided in June. Denver will send a Democrat; the story is that it's sending a Justice-Democrats-aligned one who unseated the state's longest-serving member of Congress. Kiros drew criticism from progressive allies late in the primary over her comments on the Boulder firebombing; watch whether Denver's moderate Democrats and unaffiliateds protest-vote for Blau or Peterson. It won't change the outcome, but the margin will be read nationally as a measure of the party's left turn.

CD2 — Boulder, Fort Collins, mountain counties Safe D

D
Joe NeguseIncumbent since 2019; House Democratic leadership. Re-elected with 68.4% in 2024. $3M on hand.
R
Kelley DennisonMassage therapist.
L
Gaylon KentLibertarian, perennial candidate.

What decides it

Nothing in doubt. Neguse is a likely future statewide or leadership figure; his margin is the only number anyone tracks.

CD4 — Eastern Plains, Douglas County exurbs Safe R

R
Lauren BoebertIncumbent; moved from CD3 in 2024 and won with 53.6%. Trump-endorsed.
D
Eileen LaubacherRetired Navy rear admiral, former National Security Council director. Raised nearly $10M by June — more than ten times Boebert. Registered as a Democrat in 2025; a primary rival sued over it and later dropped out.
L
Douglas MangerisLibertarian, construction superintendent and firearms dealer.

2024: Boebert 53.6%Ratings: Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato — Safe/Solid R; Race to the WH — Lean R; Economist — Likely R

What decides it

This is the reddest district in the state (Trump by roughly 19 in 2020). Laubacher's money and résumé make it the most expensive long shot in Colorado, and Boebert's personal brand runs behind a generic Republican here. The realistic ceiling for Laubacher is a single-digit loss that signals a wave; the realistic floor for Boebert is a mid-single-digit win. A Boebert loss would require a national environment we haven't seen since 2018.

CD6 — Aurora, east and south metro Safe D

D
Jason CrowIncumbent since 2019; Army Ranger veteran. Re-elected with 59% in 2024. $2.5M on hand.
R
Jason ClarkFinancial advisor, Army veteran, repeat candidate.
L
Patty McMahanLibertarian.
UP
Meredith RyanUnity Party.
I
Samir WittaIndependent, physician.

What decides it

Nothing in doubt. Crow is a national-security voice for Democrats and a plausible future Senate candidate.

CD7 — Jefferson County, Lakewood, central mountains Safe D

D
Brittany PettersenIncumbent since 2023; former state senator. Re-elected with 55.3% in 2024.
R
Tim BennettRetired Army veteran, 2025 school board candidate. Minimal funding.
ACP
Lawrence ClarkAmerican Constitution Party.
L
Dan "Kilo" SallisLibertarian.
UP
Susan HallUnity Party.
I
Joe KrzeczkowskiIndependent, technology executive.

What decides it

Nothing in doubt. The 2024 margin (55–45) is the closest of the safe seats; this is a district Republicans could contest in a good year with a funded candidate, and they didn't field one.

State offices

Every top statewide office is open — governor, attorney general, secretary of state and treasurer are all term-limited out. Democrats have swept every statewide race since 2016, so the practical question in each is who governs, not which party.

Governor & Lt. Governor Safe D

D
Phil Weiser / Lesley DahlkemperTwo-term attorney general, former CU Law dean; running mate is a Jefferson County commissioner. Beat Sen. Michael Bennet in the primary by double digits despite trailing by 30 points a year earlier.
R
Victor Marx / George MarkertColorado Springs Christian ministry leader, first-time candidate; running mate is a retired Marine colonel. Won a three-way primary by about half a point over state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer — a nine-day count.
I
Greg Lopez / Taralyn RomeroFormer Republican congressman (CD4, 2024 interim) and Parker mayor, now unaffiliated; petitioned onto the ballot in July.

Also on the ballot: Hamilton/Treibert (American Constitution), Underwood/Atwood (Approval Voting), Mulder/Harlos (Libertarian), Peckman/Hall (Unity).

What decides it

Forecasters put Weiser above 90%. Three things are worth knowing anyway. Marx is skipping the debates — he's committed to one, and demanded it be un-moderated; Weiser has now debated Lopez twice with an empty Republican chair. Lopez splits the right: he's an ex-Republican targeting GOP voters unhappy with Marx, and several Republican statewide candidates declined to sign Marx's loyalty pledge. A campaign-finance complaint over alleged excess contributions is pending against Marx.

The policy fights that will matter to the next governor: data-center growth and its power demand (Weiser says it's a day-one priority), wolf reintroduction and rancher compensation, housing cost, water, and how hard the state pushes back on the federal government (Weiser has made the Tina Peters pressure campaign a centerpiece). Watch also whether Weiser's margin beats Polis's 2022 blowout — that's the Democrats' benchmark.

Attorney General Likely D

D
Jena GriswoldTwo-term secretary of state; won a four-way primary that included David Seligman and Boulder DA Michael Dougherty.
R
Michael AllenEl Paso County district attorney (4th Judicial District), Navy veteran.

What decides it

This is the statewide race Republicans think they can make competitive, because Griswold is the most polarizing Democrat on the ticket and Allen is a working prosecutor with a crime-and-safety message. The AG's office has spent eight years suing the federal government; Griswold promises to escalate that, Allen frames the job as law enforcement first. Two ballot measures land directly on the next AG: Amendment 81 (mandatory reporting to federal immigration authorities) and Proposition 132 (fentanyl penalties). Colorado Pols has it 70–30 Griswold.

Secretary of State Safe D

D
Amanda GonzalezJefferson County Clerk and Recorder (runs elections for the state's fourth-largest county); former director of Colorado Common Cause. Won the primary with ~64%.
R
James WileyPolitical consultant, former Libertarian Party state executive director; ran for CD3 as a Libertarian in 2024.

Also on the ballot: Amanda Campbell (American Constitution), Celeste Landry (Forward), Sean Vadney (Libertarian).

What decides it

Low drama on the candidate side; high stakes on the job. Whoever wins implements Amendment 84 if it passes — replacing signature verification on mail ballots with an ID-number requirement, a rebuild of how every Colorado ballot is counted. Gonzalez is the only candidate who has actually run an election office. The GOP nominated a 2024 Libertarian candidate, which tells you where the party put its resources.

Treasurer Likely D

D
Jeff BridgesState senator, chair of the Joint Budget Committee; former state rep and congressional aide.
R
Kevin GranthamFremont County commissioner, former state Senate president.

Also on the ballot: Marilee Sturgis (Approval Voting), Jodie Barr (Libertarian).

What decides it

Two credentialed budget people, so this is closer to a real contest on qualifications than the SoS race. The next treasurer's job changes depending on the measures: Prop NN, Prop 137 and Amendment 87 all rewire TABOR refunds and revenue, and the treasurer administers the refund mechanics and invests state funds. Grantham's case is fiscal restraint and TABOR; Bridges' is that he wrote the last several state budgets.

Legislature and down-ballot Varies by district

Also on your ballot, depending on where you live:

·
All 65 state House seats and half the state Senate.Democrats hold roughly two-thirds of both chambers; Republicans netted zero seats in 2024. The question is whether Democrats reach or keep a veto-proof supermajority, which shapes what the next governor can block. Your specific race is on your sample ballot.
·
CU Board of Regents (3 of 9 seats) and State Board of Education (3 of 9 seats).District-based; both boards have partisan majorities that flip on one or two seats. These are where tuition, curriculum and testing policy get set and almost nobody researches them.
·
Judicial retention.Yes/no on judges. The state's nonpartisan Judicial Performance Commission publishes a recommendation for each one in the Blue Book; that's the only credible source.
·
County commissioners, sheriffs, DAs, clerks, school boards, special districts.County clerks have the complete list. Sheriffs and DAs in particular decide how Amendment 81 and Prop 132 are enforced in practice.

The 14 statewide measures

Seven constitutional amendments (55% to pass, except 87) and seven statutory propositions (simple majority; the Legislature can later amend them). Thirteen were put on by petition. Grouped here by what they actually do, not by number.

Amendment — changes the constitutionProposition — changes statute

Read 87 and 136 together. They cancel each other.

Amendment 87 creates a graduated income tax; Proposition 136 caps the income tax at today's flat 4.4%. If both pass, the one with more Yes votes wins. Voting Yes on both, or No on both, effectively hands the decision to other voters. This is the single largest fiscal decision on the ballot.

Taxes and TABOR

Amend. 87Simple majority (repeal-only)

Graduated income tax

Replaces the flat 4.4% tax: filers over $500,000/year (about the top 3%) pay higher rates; everyone below gets a small cut. Repeals the constitutional flat-tax requirement.

Backed by Protecting Colorado's Future (progressive coalition)Opposed by Advance Colorado via Prop 136

Deciding factor: Colorado voters rejected a graduated tax in 2018 and cut the flat rate in 2020 and 2022. This is the first attempt built around a $500K threshold that exempts almost everyone.

Prop 136Simple majority

Income tax rate cap at 4.4%

Statutory cap on the income tax rate at its current level. Written specifically to block Amendment 87.

Backed by Advance Colorado

Deciding factor: Counter-measure. Its whole purpose is to out-vote 87.

Prop NNSimple majority

K-12 education funding (raise the TABOR cap)

The only legislature-referred measure. Lets the state keep more revenue above the TABOR limit, roughly $500M/year, for K-12. In strong revenue years it reduces or eliminates TABOR refunds.

Backed by Democratic legislative majorities (SB26-135)

Deciding factor: This is a trade: smaller refund checks for school funding. Colorado has passed similar "keep the revenue" measures before (Prop CC failed in 2019; Prop FF passed in 2022).

Prop 137Simple majority

Sporting-goods sales tax for conservation

Exempts state sales-tax revenue on sporting goods from the TABOR cap and dedicates it to conservation and wildfire mitigation.

Backed by The Nature Conservancy and environmental groups

Deciding factor: Another cap carve-out, smaller than NN. Same refund trade-off; more bipartisan constituency (hunters and anglers plus conservationists).

Immigration, crime and policing

Amend. 8155% to pass

Police reporting to federal immigration authorities

Requires state and local law enforcement to notify federal immigration authorities when they charge someone known to be unlawfully present, or whose status is unknown. Overrides current state limits on such cooperation.

Backed by Advance Colorado

Deciding factor: The most direct ICE-cooperation question any state has put to voters. Constitutional, so the Legislature can't undo it. Lands on the next AG, every sheriff and every police chief.

Prop 132Simple majority

Fentanyl penalties

Possession of any amount becomes a felony; distribution of any amount carries a mandatory 8–32 year prison sentence. Removes existing options to divert some offenders to treatment.

Backed by Advance Colorado

Deciding factor: Eliminates judicial discretion and treatment diversion. Voters who want tougher penalties and voters who want treatment-first both get an unambiguous choice.

Prop 133Simple majority

Life without parole for child sex trafficking

Mandatory life sentence without parole for anyone convicted of trafficking a minor for sexual servitude (currently 8–48 years).

Backed by Protect Kids Colorado

Deciding factor: Mandatory-minimum question. Same sponsor as 134 and 135; opponents argue it's paired with those to drive turnout.

Transgender minors

Prop 134Simple majority

School sports by biological sex

Defines male and female in statute by physical anatomy and requires school- and association-sponsored teams to be designated men's, women's or co-ed on that basis; excludes transgender students from teams matching their gender identity.

Backed by Protect Kids Colorado

Deciding factor: Colorado has statutory protections for gender identity; this would carve sports out of them. Statutory, so a future Legislature could amend it.

Prop 135Simple majority

Ban gender-related surgery for minors

Prohibits health-care providers from knowingly performing surgery on a minor to alter sex characteristics, and bars state and federal funds (including Medicaid) from paying for gender-affirming procedures.

Backed by Protect Kids Colorado

Deciding factor: The funding clause is broader than the surgery clause — it reaches non-surgical care paid through Medicaid. Read the Blue Book fiscal note before deciding.

Elections and the initiative process

Amend. 8455% to pass

Mail-ballot voter ID

Ends signature-only verification. To count, a mail ballot would need the last four digits of your Social Security or driver's license number in addition to your signature.

Backed by Coalition for American Prosperity and Growth (donors undisclosed)

Deciding factor: Colorado is a universal-mail-ballot state; ~95% vote by mail. This changes the mechanics for nearly every voter and adds a new reason a ballot can be rejected. The next SoS implements it.

Amend. 8555% to pass

Plain-language ballot questions

Requires all future initiatives and referred measures to be written at an eighth-grade reading level.

Backed by Advance Colorado

Deciding factor: Popular on its face. The dispute is who enforces the standard and whether it gives courts a new way to strike measures.

Amend. 8655% to pass

Block mid-decade redistricting

Any off-cycle redistricting must be approved by the independent redistricting commission and the state Supreme Court, and no map may be drawn purposefully to favor a party.

Backed by Advance Colorado

Deciding factor: A response to the 2025–26 national mid-decade redistricting fights. In Colorado the effect is to lock in the current 4–4 congressional map against a Democratic redraw.

Energy and outdoors

Amend. 8255% to pass

Constitutional right to natural gas

Two sentences: consumers have the right to buy natural gas for cooking and heating anywhere in the state, and utilities have the right to sell it.

Backed by Advance Colorado

Deciding factor: Pre-empts local gas bans and electrification mandates. Constitutional, so it would override both the Legislature and city councils.

Amend. 8355% to pass

Right to hunt and fish

Constitutional right to hunt and fish by traditional methods, and declares hunting and fishing the state's preferred method of wildlife management. Excludes federally protected species.

Backed by International Order of T. Roosevelt (Wisconsin-based)

Deciding factor: "Preferred method" is the operative phrase — it constrains Colorado Parks and Wildlife's options (think wolves, mountain lions after 2024's Prop 127 fight). 20+ states have similar language.

Local measures and what's not pending

The statewide ballot was certified September 4. Nothing else can be added to it — every "likely" statewide initiative either made it or didn't. What varies is your local ballot.

Issue 7AFront Range only

Colorado Connector passenger rail sales tax

A 0.333% sales tax in 31 Front Range municipalities to fund Front Range commuter rail. Appears on ballots in parts or all of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, El Paso, Huerfano, Jefferson, Larimer, Las Animas, Pueblo and Weld counties.

Deciding factor: First real funding vote for a project that's been studied for 20 years. It passes or fails municipality by municipality, so a patchwork outcome is possible.

County & cityCheck your clerk

Everything else

Many counties, cities and school districts have their own bond, mill-levy and charter questions. County clerks have the complete list, and your sample ballot (mailed with the Blue Book) is definitive. I haven't verified individual local measures beyond 7A — treat this row as a prompt, not a list.

Before you vote

Decide 87 vs 136 first. It's the biggest dollar item and the one where a split vote backfires.
If you're in CD8, CD3 or CD5, your House vote is worth more than everything else on the ballot combined. Read both candidates' actual records, not the ads.
Read the Blue Book fiscal notes on NN, 137, 87 and 135 — the dollar amounts and who pays are where the campaigns are least honest. It mails to every household and is at leg.colorado.gov/bluebook.
Amendments need 55%. A "No" on an amendment is a heavier vote than a "No" on a proposition. Use that.
Check the sponsor. Six measures come from one undisclosed-donor group, three from another. That doesn't make them wrong; it does tell you they're a coordinated agenda, and you can vote on the agenda.
Sign your envelope the way you signed your registration. Under current law, signature mismatch is the top reason Colorado ballots get rejected.
Mail by Oct 26, or drop box after. Track your ballot at the Secretary of State's site.